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Field guide

How to read Rogue Signal without guessing what the machine meant.

Cards are built to answer three questions fast: what moved, what side the research favors, and how strong the gap looks right now.

Open dashboard See example strategies

Card anatomy

How to read a signal card

Start at the top, then scan clockwise. Each card is built to answer: where is the market, which side is favored, how big is the gap, and what could break the thesis.

Demo card — example only
Kalshi
Fresh 18m ago Macro
Edge +6.25 pts

Will the Fed cut rates at the September meeting?

Fresh CPI surprise moved model odds faster than the market price.

YES price 42¢
YES Signal
Market
Value42¢
Fair
Value48¢
Resolves
In23d
Click card to open details Reasoning · invalidation · update time · source link

Read it field by field

Every number maps to one visible item on the card.

These fields support research review only — not financial, investment, or betting advice.

1

Kalshi

The source marketplace for this example card.

2

Fresh

The card was recently updated and is still considered current.

3

18m ago

How long it has been since Rogue Signal last refreshed this card.

4

Macro

The topic category — rates, inflation, jobs, central banks, and similar markets.

5

Edge

The difference between live market price and Rogue Signal fair value.

6

Title + subtitle

The event, plus the short reason this card exists.

7

YES price

The current market price for the YES side of the contract.

8

YES Signal

The side our research currently favors. Other cards may show NO, Confirmed, or Watch.

9

Market value

The live price traders are assigning to the selected side right now.

10

Fair value

Rogue Signal’s estimated probability after model and source review.

11

Resolves in

How much clock is left before the market settles.

12

Details drawer

Reasoning, invalidation criteria, update time, and source link live here.

Card details

How to read the back of a card

Clicking a card opens the detail view. This is where you judge whether the signal is worth trusting, watching, saving, or ignoring.

Demo detail view — example only
Kalshi

Phoenix high temperature Jun 17

NO signal that the high temp in Phoenix will be 107-108° on Jun 17, 2026.

Current Price
71¢
Edge Signal
+13.29 pts
Signal
NO Signal
Edge
+13.29 pts
Market Value
71¢
Fair Value
84.3¢
Resolves
16 hours
Updated
Jun 17, 7:52 AM

Why this signal

The weather view is anchored to the latest city/date forecast for this exact threshold. NO fair value is 84.3%, above the live NO price of 71%, so the live price has not caught up.

How to use it

Use this as a NO signal, not a certainty. Check the live price first, avoid chasing if the gap has closed, and keep sizing conservative.

What would change our mind

We would back off if the forecast moved meaningfully, the contract rules did not match the setup, or the market price closed most of the gap.

Market selection

Relevant outcome: Will the high temp in Phoenix be 107-108° on Jun 17, 2026? This is the exact city and date temperature contract for the signal.

View third-party market

Back-of-card guide

Use the detail view as the trust check.

The front tells you what moved. The back explains why, what could break, and where to verify it yourself.

1

Kalshi

The source marketplace for this example detail view.

2

Title + summary

The market question plus the short reason this detail view exists.

3

Current Price

The live market price for the selected side.

4

Edge Signal

The visible gap between market price and Rogue Signal fair value.

5

Signal

The recommendation label from the front card, repeated for quick audit.

6

Edge

The exact point spread between market value and fair value.

7

Market Value

The live price traders are assigning to the selected side.

8

Fair Value

Rogue Signal’s current estimated probability.

9

Resolves

How much clock is left before the market settles.

10

Updated

How fresh the detail view is when you open it.

11

Why this signal

The core reasoning behind why the card was promoted.

12

How to use it

A research note explaining how to review the card without treating it as advice.

13

What would change our mind

The invalidation test. If this already happened, the card deserves skepticism.

14

Market selection

Why this exact contract or outcome was selected from the available market family.

15

Save signal

Star the card when you want to monitor changes or come back to it later.

16

Close

Close the detail view and return to the board.

17

Third-party market

Open the source market to verify rules, liquidity, timing, and context yourself.

Dashboard controls

How the filters work

Filters are there to reduce noise, not to make the board look busier. My take: most users should start broad, then tighten around edge, freshness, and category.

PlatformShow all sources or limit the board to one market platform, such as Kalshi or Polymarket.
Signal typeSeparate primary directional cards from confirmations and radar/watchlist context.
Category chipsFocus on one or more topic areas. Useful when you only care about sports, macro, crypto, politics, or another lane.
Saved onlyShow cards you starred. Good for monitoring a short list without rebuilding your view each session.
SearchFind cards by market title, event, team, ticker, category, or visible card text.
Minimum edgeHide weak gaps by requiring the absolute edge to clear a threshold. Raising this makes the board stricter.
SortRank by largest edge, confidence, volume, or most recent update depending on what you are trying to review.
ResetClear everything back to the full live board when a filtered view gets too narrow.

Example workflows

Example strategies

These are research workflows, not trading instructions. The goal is disciplined review: narrow the board, inspect the details, and know what would prove the card wrong.

Fast scan

Find the strongest fresh gaps

  1. Sort by largest edge.
  2. Set minimum edge around 3–5 points.
  3. Open the top cards and check update time, source link, liquidity, and invalidation.

Safer review

Use confirmations as a trust check

  1. Filter to Confirmed cards.
  2. Compare market value, fair value, and reasoning.
  3. Use them to understand where the model and market agree before reviewing directional signals.

Watchlist

Track a theme over time

  1. Filter by category or search term.
  2. Star the cards you want to monitor.
  3. Use Saved Only later to see whether the thesis strengthened, weakened, or expired.

Quality gate

Skip stale or fragile cards

  1. Check when the card refreshed.
  2. Verify the market still exists and has enough liquidity.
  3. Read invalidation first. If the invalidation already happened, the card is dead. Bury it.

Best default behavior: review fewer cards, better.

Don’t chase every blinking light. Start with fresh YES/NO signals, demand a real edge, read the details drawer, and save only what deserves follow-up.

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